The latest RICS UK residential market survey suggests that supply issues could lead to rents increasing by 15 per cent by the middle of 2023.
The most striking feature of the July 2018 survey is the continued reduction of new property being put on the market in the lettings sector with 22% more respondents seeing a fall rather than rise in New Landlord Instructions. This is the eighth consecutive quarter in which this indicator has recorded a negative number.
The report says this pattern reflects the shift in the Buy to Let market in the wake of tax changes which are still in the process of being implemented, as smaller scale landlords exit the sector. Significantly, the drop in instructions is evident in virtually all parts of the country to a greater or lesser extent.
While the supply of fresh rental stock to the market is increasingly constrained, the Tenant Demand indicator remains resilient. The upward momentum appears to have slowed, but the number of tenants looking for a new home remains in positive territory at a headline level (+4% in the latest three month period).
One consequence of this imbalance is that expectations for rental growth, and rising rents for consumers, appear to be strengthening again. Over the next twelve months, rents are projected to increase by a little short of +2% nationally, but the shortfall in supply over the medium term is expected to force a cumulative rise of around +15% (based on three month average of responses) by the middle of 2023. East Anglia and the South West are viewed as likely to see the sharpest growth over the period.
Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist said “The impact of recent and ongoing tax changes is clearly having a material impact on the Buy to Let sector as intended. The risk, as we have highlighted previously, is that a reduced pipeline of supply will gradually feed through into higher rents in the absence of either a significant uplift in the Build to Rent programme or government funded social housing. At the present time, there is little evidence that either is likely to make up the shortfall. This augers ill for those many households for whom owner occupation is either out of reach financially or just not a suitable tenure.”