Economic growth forecast slashed for 2025

The EY ITEM Club Winter Forecast is predicting that UK GDP growth will be at 1% in 2025, down from the 1.5% growth projected in October’s forecast. This represents only a marginal improvement on the 0.8% GDP growth the UK economy likely achieved in 2024. However, the EY ITEM Club still expects steady quarter-on-quarter growth…

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Business confidence falls for fifth consecutive month

British businesses increased pessimism in January, marking five consecutive months of declining corporate confidence according to the Lloyds Bank Business Barometer.The Barometer fell by two points to 37%, its lowest level in a year, following a £25 billion tax increase announced in October. Despite the dip, confidence is still above the long-term average of 29%. In previous…

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One in five listed companies issued a profit warning in 2024

One in five (19%) UK-listed companies issued a profit warning in 2024, the third highest annual proportion in 25 years, behind only the 2020 pandemic (35%) and the impact of the dot-com bubble burst and 9/11 in 2001 (23%). EY-Parthenon’s latest Profit Warnings report found that UK-listed companies issued 274 profit warnings last year – including 71…

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Record jump in number of firms in financial distress

The latest ‘Red Flag Alert’ report from Begbies Traynor reveals a worrying surge in the number of businesses in the UK entering ‘critical’ financial distress in the final quarter of 2024. In Quarter 4 (Q$) 2024, ‘critical’ financial distress rose by 50.2% to 46,853 companies, underscoring a deteriorating outlook. Of the 22 sectors covered by…

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27% of small businesses relied on credit cards for operations in 2024

New research by Intuit Quickbooks has found that 27% of small businesses relied on credit cards for operations in 2024, with 33% charging over 25% of their monthly expenses. Intuit Quickbooks says that this trend highlights a deeper issue of restricted access to affordable traditional financing, as banks become more selective in lending. In addition,…

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Firms set to raise prices amid tax and wage pressures

More than half of companies are planning to raise prices in the next three months as they face rising costs and taxes pressures according British Chambers of Commerce (BCC). Following the Budget, concern about taxation is now cited by 63% of responding firms, up from 48% in Q3. This is the highest level of tax…

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NationaI Insurance rise hinders growth for half of businesses

In the aftermath of the new Labour Government’s first Budget, businesses are looking to how best mitigate the impact of the announced rise in employee National Insurance (NI) with half of UK SMEs (50%) expecting the policy to hinder business growth, with 31% saying it will hinder their own business according to new research from…

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Government launches Fair Payment Code to tackle late payments

The Government has announced the launch of a new Fair Payment Code aimed at tackling late payments, with research showing that SMEs are on average owed £22,000 a year. It comes on top of an earlier announced consultation which will investigate the scale of the problem and best solutions. The code, overseen by the Small Business…

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Business leader confidence in economy falls

Business leaders’ confidence in the prospects for the UK economy fell to levels not seen since the pandemic during November, according to analysis by the Institute of Directors (IoD). The institute’s Economic Confidence index fell to -65 in November, down from -52 during October. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly fall and is the second…

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Late payment and debts in retail supply chains increases in Q3

The UK’s retail sector continues to display resilience amid economic pressures with notable trends in late payments and insolvencies as the year concludes. The data from trade credit insurer Atradius also highlighted a rise in payment defaults in specific retail categories but remains optimistic about the sector’s ability to adapt and thrive in 2025. The…

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Bank lending to businesses set to grow by 2.6%

New research by EY ITEM Club has found that total bank lending grew by 2.6% this year (up from – 2.2% in 2023), 3.7% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026. The research forecasts that business lending is set. to grow 3.1% this year (up from – 2.1% in 2023), 5.6% in 2025 and 6.2% in…

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Number of Welsh companies with overdue invoices hits 2024 high

The number of Welsh companies with overdue invoices on their books reached a 2024 high in September, according to new research from R3, the UK’s insolvency and restructuring trade body. Analysis of data provided by Creditsafe shows that 18,360 Welsh businesses had unpaid invoices on their books last month – the highest monthly total of…

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Business bad debt increases by 127%

The value of bad debt suffered by small businesses has surged by a staggering 127 per cent in the last six months, according to a report by SME funder, Bibby Financial Services (BFS). According to the latest SME Confidence Tracker from Bibby, businesses have written-off an average of nearly £40,000 in unpaid invoices in the…

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