Economists suggest that the recession may already over

Economists analysis of PMI data say the recession may already be over and predict that inflation could soon fall to 0%.

The prediction came as data revealed that the private sector has grown at the fastest rate in nine months. The S&P Global Flash PMI hit 53.3 in February on an index where a reading above 50 represents expansion. February’s reading was up from the 52.9 recorded in January and is the highest since May.

For the service industry, February saw a reading of 54.3 and while the manufacturing sector saw output continue to decline, the score of 47.3 is an improvement on January’s reading. With the overall PMI in positive territory for four consecutive months, economists say GDP is almost certain to increase in Q1, marking a reversal on the downturn recorded in the second half of 2023.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said “The survey data points to the economy growing at a quarterly rate of 0.2%-0.3% in the first quarter of 2024, allaying fears that last year’s downturn will have spilled over into 2024 and suggesting that the UK’s recession is already over.”