One in three small businesses will struggle when the energy price cap ends

17th February 2023

Analysis from credit score company Experian has found a third of small businesses might not be able to cover their costs when energy bill support is slashed by the Government in April.

Experian analysed the finances of 1.16 million small businesses and forecasts that 30% of these will become ‘at heightened risk’ – meaning they may not have enough cash to absorb the energy price shock – once the current price cap ends. This would more than double the percentage of this sample which are currently ‘at heightened risk’, standing at just 13%.

The global information services company looked at cash balances, credit and debit turnover records using data from the Commercial Credit Data Sharing scheme, and calculated the monthly expenditure of these small businesses on energy using public data from ONS, Gov.uk, and BusinessView.

The estimated increase in monthly energy costs from April 2023 was subtracted from the account balance of these businesses to reveal those ‘at heightened risk’.

Experian analysis also found that although invoice payments over 30 days late has actually reduced by 11% year on year, sectors including retail, accommodation, and food has worsened. 

James McGarva, Managing Director, Information Services, Experian, said: “Businesses need to prepare for the April energy shock by building their financial foundations. Practice good cash flow management, understand the factors influencing your credit score, and give energy suppliers sufficient notice if you think you’ll struggle to make payments. The future looks daunting, but there are steps that can be taken to improve financial resilience.”

 Liz Barclay, the Small Business Commissioner, said “These figures are very worrying. An added threat to the viability of small businesses is that many are struggling to get paid quickly by their bigger customers. If bigger firms are holding onto cash in case they need it for business critical expenditure, small suppliers can struggle to manage their cashflow and pay their energy and other bills while waiting. If energy bills go up again that could break the business. We need bigger customers to pay smaller suppliers as a priority to give them a fighting chance of survival.”