Tariffs raise recession risk

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has suggested the UK could be heading for a recession, warning that a trade deal may not be enough to prevent a slump in economic growth.  Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), said “The UK may be heading toward a recession, even if the Government…

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Tariffs on UK exports could see GDP growth fall to 0.8% in 2025

US import tariffs introduced by Donald Trump are set to inflict a trade war, which is expected to reduce economic growth by 0.8% over the next two years, leaving the UK £21.6 billion worse off by 2027, according to research by KPMG. KPMG says that a more severe scenario, if trade frictions continue to escalate,…

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Financial services chiefs less confident as geopolitical events weigh on revenues

Financial services leaders are less confident about profitability in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter, as they expect geopolitical events to increasingly weigh on revenues over the next five years, according to KPMG’s latest UK Financial Services Sentiment survey. The quarterly poll, which tracks sentiment among over 150 leaders working across…

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Small business confidence remains sluggish

New data from the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) reveals that small firms’ confidence levels are in a rut amid a rising tide of costs and taxes. FSB’s latest Small Business Index (SBI) for Q1 2025 shows a modest improvement in small business confidence, now at -40.7 points, compared to -64.5 in Q4 2024, though…

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Business leaders are adopting a ‘wait and see ‘approach to Trump’s tariffs

A snap poll of 562 Institute of Directors members following President Trump’s tariffs announcement has found that over a third (37%) of business leaders expect to be impacted by the tariffs and of those, over two-thirds (70%) expect their profits to decrease as a result. In response to the tariffs, 35% of members will be…

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Trump announces 10% baseline tariff

President Donald Trump has set out plans for new import taxes on all goods entering the US, with a baseline tariff on all imports of at least 10% and higher rates for countries that the White House described as the ‘worst offenders.’  While goods from the UK are set to face a new 10% tariff,…

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Confidence amongst business leaders remains low

The Institute of Directors’ (IoD) Economic Confidence Index, which measures business leader optimism in prospects for the UK economy, rose slightly to -58 in March 2025 from -64 in February. Business leader’ confidence in their own organisations also rose slightly to +5, from +2 in February. In terms of underlying indicators, cost expectations remained at…

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Business confidence remains stable

British business confidence remained stable at 49% in March, matching February’s six-month high, according to the Lloyds Bank Business Barometer. The data showed that retailers showed particularly strong confidence, aligning with recent data indicating a surprising rise in retail sales volumes in February. Retail confidence rose seven points to 58 per cent, a post-pandemic high,…

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Only four in ten feel that SMEs are a high priority for the Government

New research by Shawbrook has found that only four in ten (40%) feel that SMEs are a high priority to the current Government. The data also showed that 42% of SMEs in the UK feel the incoming NIC hikes are going to negatively impact them. A third (33%) said that the Autumn budget last year…

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SPRING STATEMENT: Growth figures highlight economy urgency – business industry reaction

The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has delivered her Spring Statement outlining the Government’s economic plans. Responding to the announcement, Policy Chair of the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB), Tina McKenzie, said “Today’s growth figures are a stark reminder of the urgent need to get the economy moving. The whole of Government must now step up and…

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One in five businesses utilising credit cards for cash flow

One in five small businesses are turning to credit cards to manage cash flow, highlighting a growing trend among entrepreneurs facing unpredictable income and rising expenses.  While credit cards can offer flexibility and short-term relief, relying on them without a strategy can quickly spiral into high-interest debt and financial strain. The British Business Bank found…

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Inflation drops slightly to 2.8% – industry reaction

Latest data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) has shown that inflation fell slightly to 2.8% in February down from 3% in January. Core Inflation came in at 3.5% in the 12 months to February, down from the 3.7% in January and lower than forecast. ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner said “Inflation eased in…

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SMEs call for tax cuts to revive the economy

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across the UK are urging the government to take decisive action to stimulate economic growth, with tax cuts and skills development emerging as key priorities. New research from specialist lender Shawbrook shows that over a third of SME leaders believe tax breaks for reinvestment (36%) and research and development (34%)…

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