CFOs optimistic about 2022 outlook

11th January 2022

A Deloitte survey of CFOs found persistent labour shortages, the pandemic, climate change and higher inflation were seen as the leading risks to their businesses in the year ahead. However, some 37% said that increasing capital expenditure was a priority for 2022. This is the highest figure recorded by Deloitte since it first asked the question in 2009.

Half of the respondents said expanding into new markets and introducing new products and services were a priority for this year, up from 37% last March.

CFOs cite growth in demand at home and abroad, and the climate transition as the main drivers of investment. On the type of investment, an overwhelming majority of CFOs expect to invest more in digital technology (94%) and workforce skills (77%) over the next three years, than in the years before than pandemic. Also, most CFOs (84%) expect productivity to grow faster in the next three years, than in the years before the pandemic.

Conducted between 1 and 14 December 2021, Deloitte’s latest quarterly CFO Survey captured sentiment amongst the UK’s largest businesses, against a backdrop of the emergence of the Omicron variant, the government triggering its ‘Plan B’ restrictions and rising inflation. The latest survey saw 85 CFOs participate, including CFOs of 21 FTSE 100 and 29 FTSE 250 companies. The combined market value of the 60 UK-listed companies that participated is £493 billion, approximately 19% of the UK quoted equity market.

CFOs rate persistent labour shortages, the pandemic, climate change and higher inflation respectively as the top risks facing their businesses. Compared to this time last year, CFOs have reduced their risk rating for the COVID-19 pandemic. By contrast, labour and supply shortages have emerged as significant short-term risks over the last year, resulting in a higher risk rating for inflation.

In terms of recovery of demand for their own businesses’ products and services, 59% of CFOs state that it already returned to pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2021. Around a quarter (27%) expect demand to return in Q3 2022 or later, consistent with findings from the previous edition of the survey.

Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, says: “Like equity markets, which rallied into the new year, CFOs seem to be looking past Omicron and plan to focus their businesses on growth in 2022.

“It is a measure both of the remarkable snap-back in activity from the pandemic and the scale of the challenge today that CFOs rate labour shortages as the greatest risk to business. This is ahead of even the pandemic, in second place. Strikingly, the worries that dominated the risk list in recent years – above all Brexit and weak global growth – have dropped sharply down the risk rankings.”

Almost half of the CFOs surveyed (46%) reported that their businesses have faced significant or severe recruitment difficulties over the last three months. Things are expected to improve in 2022, with 24% of CFOs expecting significant or severe recruitment difficulties in a year’s time.

There has been an uptick in the proportion of CFOs (37%) reporting that their businesses have experienced significant or severe supply chain disruption over the past three months, compared to the previous edition of the survey (28%). They expect some easing of constraints, with one in five CFOs (19%) anticipating similar levels of disruption in one year’s time.

Richard Houston, senior partner and CEO of Deloitte, comments: “CFOs are going into 2022 with their sights set on expansion. Investment in technology and skills are key priorities for business as they seek to grow, innovate and build resilience.”