Cost of some lowest priced food items rise by more than 50%

The cost of some lowest-priced food items rose by more than 50% as new ONS figures show many people struggling to pay energy bills and rents.

The analysis found that the cost of the lowest-priced vegetable oil and pasta have both risen by almost two thirds in the last year,

The new experimental figures, which have been collected by ‘scraping’ around 1.5 million prices from supermarket websites every month using cutting-edge data science techniques, show that in the latest year, the cheapest prices available for some grocery staples have risen sharply, including vegetable oil (65%) and pasta (60%), which have risen by almost two thirds, while tea (46%), chips (39%), bread (38%) and biscuits (34%) all rose by more than a third in the year to September. Crucially, these large rises in the cheapest available items are broadly in line with the average food price rises reported within the ONS’s regular headline inflation measures.

In the last six months alone the web scraped data show vegetable oil prices rose by nearly a half (46%), chips by almost a quarter (24%) and bread by over a fifth (22%). Meanwhile, orange juice (-9%), minced beef (-7%), sugar (-0.3%) and rice (-0.2%) were the only staple items to see their prices fall, over the 12 months to September 2022.

Alongside these figures, the ONS has published new analysis of data from its near real-time Opinions and Lifestyle Survey, which shows around seven in ten (72%) of people with prepayment meters found it difficult to afford their energy bills at the beginning of October.

In addition, new details of OPN data show that, during the summer, disabled people, those from some ethnic minority backgrounds and renters were among those most likely to be experiencing difficulty affording or to being behind on energy, rent or mortgage payments.

The figures show over half (55%) of disabled adults reported finding it difficult to afford their energy bills and around a third (36%) found it difficult to afford their rent or mortgage payments compared with 40% and 27% of non-disabled people respectively.

Meanwhile, around four in ten (44%) of White adults reported finding it difficult to afford their energy bills compared with around two-thirds (69%) for Black or Black British adults and around six in ten (59%) for Asian or Asian British adults.

In addition, the figures show nearly two-thirds (60%) of renters reported finding it difficult to afford their energy bills and more than a third (39%) found it difficult to afford their rent or mortgage payments compared with 43% and 23% respectively for those with a mortgage.

Commenting on the figures, the National Statistician Sir Ian Diamond said “While the recent spike in inflation began with energy prices, today’s fresh insights using a new innovative data source show they are now filtering through to other important items, with the cheapest price of some staple food items rising by around two thirds in the last year.”

“Figures from our near real-time survey of people show that while rises in food and energy costs are affecting many people across the country, those who are disabled, from certain ethnic minority backgrounds and renters are among those struggling the most.”

“With rises in the cost of living at the forefront of many people’s minds, our new, almost real time, data showing just how prices are changing and shining a light on how different groups are affected have never been more important.”

Sarah Coles, Senior Personal Finance Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown said “Those on lower incomes are being crushed between rising energy bills and housing costs, including those on pre-payment meters, renters, people with disabilities, Black or Black British people and Asian or Asian British people. And the pressure is only going to get worse.”

“Almost half of us are finding it difficult to pay the bills at the moment (45%), but this rockets to almost three quarters of those on pre-payment meters (72%), and three in five renters (60%). And the pressure is mounting. Direct debit customers should be able to pay the same amount each month, so that higher winter costs are spread throughout the year. However, some calculations of direct debits at a time of rising prices have been so wayward that there are no guarantees. Meanwhile, those on pre-payment meters pay for energy as they go, so will be hit hard as winter bites. It’s particularly alarming that this is the group that’s already most likely to be struggling with bills. So it seems particularly unfair that they are charged even more for their energy than direct debit customers.”

“Renters are also facing some impossible challenges. They’re finding it harder to pay their energy bills and cover their housing costs than those with mortgages. This owes something to the fact that it makes up a bigger chunk of their spending. The report found that in 2021 people with a mortgage paid an average of 16% of household income on the mortgage while renters paid an average of 23%.”

“Renters are also more exposed to rises in living costs. The rapidly falling number of properties available to rent, coupled with escalating numbers of renters means that rents have been soaring in recent months for anyone whose tenancy has come to an end. Meanwhile, those who pay a mortgage and are on a fixed rate are protected from price rises for the length of their fix – typically two or five years. For them, there’s a nasty shock lying in wait when they need to remortgage – especially since the mini-budget ramped up mortgage rates so dramatically. However, in the interim their bills feel marginally more manageable.”